Wednesday, November 29, 2017

CCL Draw, Preseason Plans, and Castillo Incoming?

Lots of news aside from Hudson today.  Taking it roughly in order.

CONCACAF announced the draw for the 2018 CCL today.  Colorado will be the one MLS/Liga MX team in Pot B, the other 8 teams will be in Pot 1.  Under the competition rules we can't be drawn against an American team in the first round so we know our opponent will be one of Toronto, Chivas, Club America, Tigres, or Tijuana.  Colorado will host the first leg as the Pot B. team.

The seeding were based on the results of the teams in each slot over the last 5 CCL competitions.  So as the team in the USA4 slot our pot placement was based on the CCL results of the last 5 teams in the USA4 slot.  That results in us being in a tie with Dallas, the USA2 slot holder, for the final spot in Pot A but presumably, since USA2 is a "higher" spot than USA4, they got the final pot A spot.

The draw will be on Dec. 18th with the games in late February.  I don't love our chances but a home snowstorm at altitude might be a nice equalizer.

That was followed by this tweet from Spanish sports reporter John E. Rojas that the rumor linking U.S. Nat Edgar Castillo to the Rapids will be come a reality in the next few days.  Castillo is a 31 year old left back who has played his whole career in Mexico and played for the Mexican Nats before making a one time switch to the U.S. in 2009.  He played somewhat regularly for the Nats between 2009-2013 (but not in the World Cup) including in the 1-0 win at the Azteca.  He appeared once in 2014 and then in both qualifiers against Guatemala in 2016.

This would be a huge upgrade at left back, one of the biggest holes the Rapids have.  At 31 he's not a long-term prospect but he still should have 3 or so good seasons in him.  This would be a solid move for the FO and a good sign that they are addressing areas of need.

Finally the end of the Denver Post article about the Hudson signing had some information about our preseason plans.  Camp will open on Jan. 22nd, the earliest day allowed by the CBA, and on the 24th the team will head to Casa Grande for an intense preseason camp to prepare for the CCL.  The team will participate in the Desert Diamond Cup but depending on the CCL schedule it may be a split squad that gets left behind in Tucson while the first team returns to Denver and/or goes on the road for the legs of the CCL.

I'm glad to see the team has a plan already in place to deal with the tight time window between the allowed start of preseason and the CCL.  Its not much, you think every team would have this figured out, but in the past the Rapids FO, at least publicly, hasn't always seemed that organized about preseason matters.

That's all for today, which is plenty.  I love having an active FO in the offseason, its a nice change, but a little more spacing of the major announcements  would be appreciated.  :D

Rapids Finally Make Hudson Official

What we hope the rest of the league is thinking right now

Fair warning, you're going to have to get used to Bill Paxton from Aliens gifs for a while as there's enough quotable Hudson lines to keep me entertained for at least the offseason.  Today Colorado announced what we all knew was coming, Anthony Hudson is the new head coach.  We've talked plenty about his background in past posts so there's not much more to say about him.

My reaction is a bit of "eh, we'll see if this works".  He talks the talk and his players and other people associated with him all speak highly of him.  I like his reported attention to detail and willingness to accept some newer coaching methods and statistical analysis.  His lack of fully professional club coaching experience is still a big weakness though and I wasn't overly impressed with his coaching decisions in the recent Peru playoff series.  This isn't a horrible hire but its not one that's got me super excited for next season either.  Certainly he's a better hire at the time than Pablo was and arguably Smith.  Those two both came with more knowledge of the organization but significantly less experience.

There was news today as well on the CCL draw, a player rumor, and preseason plans.  I'll cover that in another update either tonight or tomorrow.

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

News On Mohammed Saeid

Yesterday's roster moves contained only one real surprise, the Rapids not picking up Mo Saeid's option.  Today the Rapids media director tweeted the following:
We would have loved to keep Mo. A great player and even better person. Unfortunately, due to some personal circumstances, Mo asked for his option not to be picked up. We respected those wishes and will very much miss having him around. Wish him the best.
Obviously this was the right move by the team and I think I speak for all Rapids fans when I say that I hope whatever Mo is dealing with works out for the better and wish him luck on his next step.

Monday, November 27, 2017

Roster Cut Day And Hudson "News"

Big day today as the Rapids announced their option pickups and roster cuts going into the offseason.  Lets break them down:

  • Sam Hamilton's option picked up - Easy decision, first round draft pick, cheap, still has time to develop
  • Eric Miller's option picked up - Meh.  He is versatile, being able to play anywhere on the back line, but he's not particularly good at any of those positions.  Hopefully this is due to interest in trading for him.
  • Jared Watts option picked up - Watts is a sold MLS-quality backup CB.  If that's how we're going to use him, great.  He should not be in the running as a starting CB.
  • John Berner's option declined - No surprise, he's clearly plateaued and we could draft somebody as good as him with a possible higher ceiling.
  • Dennis Castillo's option declined - If he had a green card I think he'd still be on the roster, but international spots are too valuable.
  • Josh Gatt's option declined - Too expensive for what he brought (which wasn't much).  That was fine last year when Minnesota reportedly ate most of his contract but not when we're eating it.
  • Alan Gordon's option declined - We always knew that was likely a one year move.  We could bring him back at a lower number but I bet he holds off to hope for a contract from LAFC.
  • Mohammed Saeid's option declined - This is the real surprise move to me.  I thought he had done enough ton  stay with the team.  I expect they're trying to offer him a contract at a lower number.
  • Mekeil Williams option declined - Duh.
  • Luis Gil option to buy declined - Also duh.
  • Bobby Burling out of contract and released - At his age and injury history and with Ford coming on there was no real future for him there.
The rest of the roster is under contract for next year which includes, surprisingly, Mike da Fonte.  However there are already multiple reports that the plan for da Fonte is for him to play out the rest of his contract on loan in the USL.  Clearly its cheaper to do that then to eat his contract.  If they are able to send him on season-long loans with no recall option then he wouldn't take up a roster spot and as a young, low-paid player he's not on the senior roster and doesn't take up any cap room.  We'll call that being Ramirez'ed.

That leaves 18 players on the roster (including Blomberg) going into the offseason and up to 12 open slots.  Plenty of room for the new manager to work with.

And speaking of that new manager, we have all but official confirmation that its Hudson.  A report from this weekend said that he was en route to Colorado to sign a 3 year deal.  If accurate we should expect an announcement sometime this week,

There were some positive words about Hudson in an interview of Andrew Durante, who announced his retirement from the New Zealand National Team last week.
With a "wider range" of talented players coming through, Durante said he believed the future was bright for the All Whites and he urged New Zealand Football to find someone who could "equal the passion and drive" of outgoing coach Anthony Hudson.
"I can't speak for the general public but I know within the group he was an awesome coach and a really detailed coach. Every camp was very intense and very detailed and structured. You just knew going into every game that you would be prepared. You knew exactly what the other team's strengths and weaknesses were, the training sessions were always challenging and he always pushed us," he said.
"In terms of the playing group, I think he will be very fondly remembered."
Generally there's been a lot of talk about how he brought a level of professionalism and preparation to the NZ team that was very lacking prior to his arrival.  Those are positive attributes to bring to the Rapids.

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Hudson Watch 2017 Part 2

The New Zealand Herald has had two articles in the last 3 days reporting that Hudson is on his way to Colorado.  The first says the deal is not yet complete but there's nothing that's going to prevent it.  The second says that Hudson's assistant and NZ U-20 coach Darren Bazeley is expected to join Hudson in Colorado as his assistant.  At this point it would be astonishing if anyone but Hudson was the coach next season.

I took a look at New Zealand's record in competitive matches over the last few managers to see if Hudon had a notable effect (W-D-L):

Hudson (2014-2017): 8-4-1 - 2.15 pts/game
Emblen (2005-2013): 16-9-6 - 1.84 pts/game
Herbert (2002-2004): 8-0-6 - 1.71 pts/game
Waitt (1998-2001): 11-0-6 - 1.94 pts/game

So a small sample size (Hudson had less competitive games than any manager since 1998) but he was obviously the best record in the last 20 years.  Of course Herbert did take the team to the World Cup and got 3 draws despite having the worst record, so its hard to say that Hudson was the best manager.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Hudson Watch 2017

The newest twist in the Hudson/Rapids saga hit tonight as Hudson officially stepped down as the New Zealand coach.  There's no news as to his next move but all signs continue to point to Colorado as his next stop.  I've also heard secondhand that the new manager, whomever he is, was involved in the decision to sign Blomberg.

Obviously with the holiday we won't hear anything official the rest of this week but I assume if it is Hudson that we'll start getting some leaks by early next week,

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Rapids Make An Announcement...But Its Not The Coach


Its our first offseason player signing! Swedish attacking midfielder Johan Blomberg joins the Rapids on a free transfer from Swedish side AIK.  Blomberg is 30 years old and until now has played his whole career in Sweden.  Blomberg can play centrally or on either wing though reports are he favors the right side.  Blomberg has had 6 assists and 3 goals which isn't outstanding but its something.  AIK has been the runner-up in the top Swedish league the last two seasons and they've played in Europa League qualifying regularly, usually getting knocked out in the 3rd qualification round

I'm neither enthused nor disappointed in this signing.  Blomberg has the makings of a solid signing that can play a lot of minutes in midfield and keep the likes of Gatt and Ramirez from getting more playing time than they deserve.  Based on what I've seen today a team full of Blomberg's could probably make the playoffs but wouldn't make a deep run.

It is interesting that the Rapids are making a player signing without a managerial announcement.  This leads us to two likely scenarios, one good and one bad.  The good scenario is that the future coach (almost certainly Hudson in this scenario) has already agreed to a contract, maybe even signed it, and the Rapids are just waiting for the appropriate time to make the announcement.  In that case he's probably giving input on this signing and is in full agreement.  The bad scenario is that whatever plan the Rapids had for their manager has fallen apart, they're no announcement planned in the near future, and Smith is making the moves that need to be made for next season and hopefully whomever we hire will be able to work with the decisions.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Clock's ticking


Barring a miracle in the next 25 minutes Peru is going to eliminate New Zealand and Anthony Hudson will be able to take the Rapids job.  Given that we've heard no other rumors for a couple of weeks all signs point to Hudson being the man.  Now the clock starts ticking,  The Rapids needs to get the deal done, announce him this week, have a press availability early next week, and have him get right into it as soon as the holiday is over.  Any delay at this point in announcing Hudson (or whomever) is inexcusable.

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Lopez Out As FO Shakeups Continue

The Denver Post reports that Claudio Lopez will not return to the Front Office next year.  Smith told the Post that Lopez's contract was up and it was decided to not offer him a new one.  This isn't a huge shock.  Over the last couple of years Lopez has either been blamed for poor signings or for not convincing the Front Office to make good signings.  Its never been clear, for obvious reasons, what players Lopez was actively involved in recruiting, successfully or not, but he was brought in for his South American knowledge and connections.  Since he joined in 2015 the Rapids haven't had a successful notable signing from South America.

That, combined with the general (much needed) shake-up the whole organization is going through makes it an understandable choice to part ways.  Lopez was an amazing player, great to the fans, and by all reports is a good person, its just time for a change.

Also in that article Smith talks about the new structure of the FO and his plans to add an assistant GM, a director of player personnel, and a head of sport science.  These all sounds like good steps though I'd like to see the goal for these signings (especially the new director of player personnel) be more aggressive than the start of preseason.  He also says that the team is in the final stages of the new coach but would not name any names.  Reading between the lines though it screams to me that the target is Hudson but nothing will happen until after the Peru-New Zealand playoff series.

On the player front Smith talked about two positions he wants to fill quickly, left wingback and attacking mid.  The first would be a much needed replacement for Williams, the second would be something this team desperately needs.  I'm not sure how he's going to fit on the field unless the play is to go back to a 4-5-1/4-2-3-1 but maybe sticking with a 4-4-2 with a more traditional diamond midfield of Gashi and Aigner on the wings, Boateng at the back, and this new signing up front.  Smith also mentioned Tim Hoard by name as the building black of the team, so its even more clear that Howard still has more in the tank.

Monday, November 6, 2017

Expansion Draft Coming, Maybe?

Next year LAFC becomes team #23 in MLS.  From all expectations there will be an expansion draft sometime in December for them, but oddly there's been no announcement of the timing or rules for that draft.  Maybe MLS is going to do something different this time?

For now I'm going to assume its coming and I'm going to assume its going to use essentially the same rules as last year's draft for Atlanta and Minnesota used.  With those assumptions, here's who I'd protect on the Rapids.  A quick recap of the rules:

  • Teams protect 11 players
  • All homegrown and Generation Adidas players are automatically protected on top of the 11
  • All players with a no-trade clause must be protected
  • DP's are not automatically protected
  • At least 3 internationals must be protected
Auto-protected homegrown players: Calvert, Ford, Perez, Serna
Auto-protected Generation Adidas players: None (I'm assuming Hairston and Miller have both graduated from the program)

* = Protected in 2016 expansion draft

International minimum:
Aigner - Obvious choice, I think he'll be a key part of the squad next year
Badji* - His somewhat surprising run to the Golden Boot means he's now a key part of the team
Gashi* - Based on Smith's radio interview it sounds like he's learned what he needs to do to contribute

Azira* - Struggled in 2017 without a consistent partner in midfield but still the best dmid we have
Boateng - His broken back made this season a wash but I expect Smith sees him a a key building block going forward
Hairston* - Has things to work on but brings a sense of urgency and attitude the rest of the team lacks
Howard* - Even without the no-trade clause I'm sure he has he would be an obvious choice.  Too good to let walk away for nothing
MacMath* - Too valuable to let get away, and his time is coming
Saied - Not blown away buy him but better quality than most
Sjoberg* - The big Swede is a good foundation for this rebuilding team

That's 10 obvious choices.  The 11th is really dependent on what the FO thinks LAFC is looking for and what player has the most value going forward.  If Gatt or Williams has trade value, protect them.  if Castillo has a future here, protect him.  If Gordon can be re-signed for a lower number, he might be worth protecting as he would be an obvious LAFC target.  My recommendation from the outside would be Gordon as I think he's the valuable player most likely to be selected by LAFC.

Usually at the end of a season I do a roster review, separating players into keep, keep unless upgrade possible, cut, etc.  This year though this post pretty much does that.  Quite simply this roster isn't good enough to compete in MLS as built and most of the players on it will need to be replaced in order to win anything it this league.  If they're not listed above assume they're only worth keeping because you can't swap out 13-16 players in one season so some of them will have to stay.

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

November 1st, No Manager Yet

For the last 6 weeks or so the Rapids have talked about their goal of having a manager in place by November 1st.  Well the 1st has come and gone and no manager and only one real rumor (we'll get to that in a moment).

Now I don't think missing this date is a big deal yet.  There's really not a ton a manager could do for the next couple of weeks.  Obviously every minute of time the manager can spend in the job is a good thing, but until after MLS Cup all the new guy can do is evaluate the current roster, tell Smith what type of players to look for, and generally put dominoes in place for when the season ends and moves can be made.    All of that is obviously important, if this new "Rapids Way" is as coordinated as Smith is portraying it he can do a lot of that initial work himself while he negotiates with the targeted candidate.

That only gets us so far though.  MLS Cup is scheduled for Dec. 9th.  With Thanksgiving week generally being useless for getting work done in any office anywhere (not just soccer) the new manager needs to be in place in the next two weeks, give or take.  Which brings us to the one solid rumor we've seen about the position, New Zealand Nats coach Anthony Hudson.  Coincidentally, the Peru-New Zealand playoff for the final World Cup spot is on November 11th (in NZ) and Nov 15th (in Peru).  Just about the time the Rapids really need to have a manager...

I've dug around a little bit looking at Anthony Hudson.  What I've found hasn't made me jump off a cliff, but I'm also not floored by him as a candidate either.  Hudson was born in Seattle (fellow Seattleite!) but grew up in England as he's the son of Chelsea great Alan Hudson.  He was in West Ham's youth system to start but after bouncing around England and the Netherlands for a couple of years he got his only senior appearances (all 10 of them) as a midfielder with the Wilmington Hammerheads between 2006 and 2008.  This is hardly a knock against him though as some of the best coaches (Wegner for example) had minimal playing careers.

What is a bit of a concerning knock is his coaching career.  After retiring as a player to go into coaching he immediately took over the PDL Real Maryland Monarchs for 3 seasons.  He then jumped over to England to be a coach for Tottenham's reserve team and then coached non-league side Newport County from April to September when he got bounced after getting one win in the first twelve games of the season.

It was at that point he was tapped to take over Bahrain's U23/Olympic team and then a year later the full national side.  During this year he spent time with Mourinho at Real Madrid and Bielsa at Bilbao.  He coached the U23's to the win at the 2013 U23 Gulf of Nations tournament, the first tournament win in Bahrain's U23's history.  He was rumored to take over Denmark in October of 2013 but eventually took over as New Zealand manager in 2014.  While manager of the All Whites he reportedly turned down the MK Dons job in England and was linked with jobs at Norwich City and Derby County (he denied ever being approached by Derby).

When you add all that up you would see a significant hole in his resume.  For all his experience he's never managed a full professional club side.  The Monarchs were an amateur side, Newport was a semi-pro side and National sides are very different entities than club teams.  One thing I said going into this search was that I didn't want a 4th straight coach learning how to do the job.  This would be a bit different than Pablo/Pareja/Smith in that he has been the "top man" at a number of places dealing with professional players but its still not the same as running a pro club day in and day out for a 34 game season.

The good news is that his players for New Zealand praise him for bringing a new level of professionalism and advances to the team.  He also holds a UEFA Pro coaching license which is no easy thing to get.  He seems passionate and dedicated not only to his teams but also to improving himself in whatever way possible.  I think if he really is the leading candidate, as I'm hearing from secondary sources, its his focus on the system and process that won over Smith and co. even if his experience doesn't quite map to the hope the fans had.